US Recession Odds Cut to 25% by Goldman Sachs on Jobs, Business Outlook

Ben Holland

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Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the risk of a US recession is receding amid a persistently strong jobs market and signs of improving business sentiment.

The Goldman team led by Jan Hatzius cut its estimate for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%. By contrast, Bloomberg's survey of economists last month pointed to a 65% chance of a downturn within that time. Historically the typical chance of a recession in any 12-month period is roughly 15%.